Discover Your Retirement Number

September 22, 2021

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Denise and Chris Arand

Denise and Chris Arand

Executive Vice Presidents/Financial Strategists

2173 Salk Ave
#250
Carlsbad, CA 92008

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June 21, 2021

What's a Recession?

What's a Recession?

Most of us would probably be apprehensive about another recession.

The Great Recession caused financial devastation for millions of people across the globe. But what exactly is a recession? How do we know if we’re in one? How could it affect you and your family? Here’s a quick rundown.

So what exactly is a recession? <br> The quick answer is that a recession is a negative GDP growth rate for two back-to-back quarters or longer (1). But reality can be a bit more complicated than that. There’s actually an organization that decides when the country is in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is composed of commissioners who dig through monthly data and officially declare when a downturn begins.

There’s also a difference between a recession and a depression. A recession typically lasts between 6 to 16 months (the Great Recession was an exception and pushed 18 months). The Great Depression, by contrast, lasted a solid decade and witnessed unemployment rates above 25% (2). Fortunately, depressions are rare: there’s only been one since 1854, while there have been 33 recessions during the same time (3).

What happens during a recession <br> The NBER monitors five recession indicators. The first and most important is inflation-adjusted GDP. A consistent quarterly decline in GDP growth is a good sign that a recession has started or is on the horizon. Then this gets supplemented by other numbers. A falling monthly GDP, declining real income, increasing unemployment, weak manufacturing and retail sales all point to a recession.

How could a recession affect you? <br> The bottom line is that a weak economy affects everyone. Business slows down and layoffs can occur. People who keep their jobs may get spooked by seeing coworkers and friends lose their jobs, and then they may start cutting back on spending. This can start a vicious cycle which can lead to lower profits for businesses and possibly more layoffs. The government may increase spending and lower interest rates in order to help stop the cycle and stabilize the economy.

In the short term, that means it might be harder to find a job if you’re unemployed or just out of school and that your cost of living skyrockets. But it can also affect your major investments; the value of your home or your retirement savings could all face major setbacks.

Recessions can be distressing. They’re hard to see coming and they can potentially impact your financial future. That’s why it’s so important to start preparing for any downturns today. Schedule a call with a financial professional to discuss strategies to help protect your future!

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October 26, 2020

Is Your Home An Investment?

Is Your Home An Investment?

It’s a law of the universe that your house is an investment, right?

Just ask your grandparents who bought a $250,000 home for $50,000 during the 1950s. Better yet, listen to your savvy landlord buddy who rules an urban real estate empire that they gobbled up following the Great Recession. We’re surrounded by evidence that conclusively demonstrates the power of houses as investments… or are we?

Hmmm.

It turns out that buying a place of residence may not actually pay off in the long run like it might appear on paper. Here’s why you might want to rethink having your primary residence be an investment only.

Houses (usually) don’t actually grow more valuable <br> Think about that suburban mansion your grandparents snagged for $50,000 that eventually “grew” to be worth $250,000. On paper, that looks like an awesome investment; that house quintupled in value! But remember, $1 in 1950 had about the purchasing power of $10 today. Four gallons of gas or two movie tickets were just one buck!¹ That means $50,000 at that time could buy a $539,249 house today. Your grandparents actually lost money on that house, even though it looked like they made off like bandits!

It’s all because of one simple feature of economics: inflation. Prices tend to rise over time, meaning that your dollar today doesn’t go as far as it would have in 1950. So while it looks like your grandparents netted a fortune on their house, they actually didn’t. They lost over half its value! Unless your neighborhood suddenly spikes in popularity with young professionals or you start renting, your house probably won’t accrue any real worth beyond inflation.

Houses have to be maintained <br> But it’s not just that houses usually don’t actually appreciate in value. They also cost money in property taxes, utilities, and maintenance. Homeowners spend, on average, $1,105 annually to maintain their dwelling places.² You can expect to pay $12,348 annually on the average mortgage and $2,060 for utilities.³ & ⁴ That comes out to a total of $15,513 per year on keeping the house and making it livable. Let’s say your home is worth about $230,000 and appreciates by 3.8% every year. It will grow in value by about $8,740 by the end of the year. That’s barely more than half of what it costs to keep the house up and running! Your house is hemorrhaging money, not turning a profit.

It’s important to note that homeownership can still generally be a good thing. It can protect you from coughing up all your money to a landlord. Buying a property in an up-and-coming neighborhood and renting it out can be a great way to supplement your income. Plus, there’s something special about owning a place and making it yours. But make no mistake; unless you strike real estate gold, your place of residence probably shouldn’t be (primarily) an investment. It can be home, but you might need to rely on it to help fund your retirement!

Market performance is based on many factors and cannot be predicted. This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to promote any certain products, plans, or strategies for saving and/or investing that may be available to you. Any examples used in this article are hypothetical. Before investing or enacting a savings, investment, or retirement strategy, seek the advice of a licensed financial professional, accountant, and/or tax expert to discuss your options.

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Market performance is based on many factors and cannot be predicted. This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to promote any certain products, plans, or strategies for saving and/or investing that may be available to you. Any examples used in this article are hypothetical. Before investing or enacting a savings, investment, or retirement strategy, seek the advice of a licensed financial professional, accountant, and/or tax expert to discuss your options.


“7 Things You Could Buy For $1 in 1950,” Megan Elliott, Showbiz Cheatsheet, Oct 9, 2016, https://www.cheatsheet.com/money-career/things-you-could-buy-for-1-dollar.html/

“How Much Should You Budget For Home Maintenance,” Paula Pant, The Balance, May 26, 2020, https://www.thebalance.com/home-maintenance-budget-453820

“National Average Monthly Mortgage Payment,” Hannah Rounds, LendingTree, July 11, 2018, https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/national-average-monthly-mortgage-payment/#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20average%20monthly,the%20typical%20homeowners’%20monthly%20income

“How much is the average household utility bill?,” Nationwide, https://www.nationwide.com/lc/resources/personal-finance/articles/average-cost-of-utilities#:~:text=The%20typical%20U.S.%20family%20spends,climate%2C%20and%20your%20usage%20patterns

April 27, 2020

A Brief Guide To Tariffs

A Brief Guide To Tariffs

Tariffs have become a hot button issue over the past few years.

But what exactly are they? And what kind of impact do they have on the economy? Here’s a brief guide to all things tariff!

Quick definition and brief history <br> A tariff is a tax on imports and exports between states. Let’s say you make pottery and sell it on the internet. You start getting lots of orders from Belgium, so you need to ship bowls and vases across the pond. You have to bump up prices a bit to cover the transportation costs, but your products do well.

But then Belgium decides to impose a tariff on imported pottery. Suddenly, you have to pay a 10% tax to get anything into the country. So what can you do? Increasing your prices to cover the tax will probably make your pottery too expensive and it won’t sell. As long as that tariff is in place, it might make more sense to sell locally or find another country without the tariff.

Who do tariffs benefit? <br> Why would a country want to impose a tariff? It doesn’t necessarily make the government more money. People can find other markets where they don’t have to pay an entrance fee. And besides, untaxed or free trade normally produces more jobs in poorer countries and gets cheap products into richer ones.

Unfortunately, not everyone wins in free trade. What if your pottery was so amazing and so much cheaper than local pottery that you started putting Belgian potters out of business? Sure, you would probably create tons of jobs in your own country and Belgium would be flooded with superior plates and mugs, but thousands of Belgians would be out of work. And they wouldn’t be happy and they might take out that anger at the ballot box. A tariff on imported pottery would be a way for Belgium to protect a section of their economy (and voters) from financial ruin.

Imposing tariffs, like any economic policy, are a mixed bag. They’ve been out of style for a long time, but globalization and changes in the world economy have made them more appealing to workers competing with (and potentially losing to) cheap foreign labor. Only time will tell if their comeback is for good or just a flash in the pan!

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October 9, 2019

Are You Sitting Down?

Are You Sitting Down?

When things go wrong or we face an unexpected expense, we usually have one of two choices: Use credit to navigate a short-term cash crunch, or dip into savings.

In either case, it’s a good idea to have liquid funds available. Using credit can actually make your money problem worse if you don’t have enough to pay off the balance each month to avoid incurring interest charges. If you use savings but don’t have a comfortable cushion put away, repairing your home’s ancient A/C system may deplete your emergency stores, leaving you with nothing to replace the washer and dryer that decided to break down at the same time.

Ideally, you’ll have enough money saved to cover the unexpected. However, if you’re like many American households, that may not be the case. The U.S. personal savings rate continues to fall.

National Savings Rate
The savings rate is calculated as the ratio of personal savings to disposable personal income. In March 2018, the U.S. personal savings rate was about 3%. So – is that high? Is it low? Get this: The personal savings rate has fallen nearly 50% in the past two years. Tracking the monthly savings rate back to 1959 shows that we’re not as good at saving as we used to be. In the past, the long-term average personal savings rate was over 8%, with some periods of time when it was over 15%. Kind of shames our current 3% savings rate, doesn’t it?

The national personal savings rate is also skewed by higher income savers, with the top 1% saving over 51% and the top 5% saving nearly 40% of their disposable income. Unsurprisingly, lower income families can have more difficulty with saving, as most of their paycheck is often already earmarked for basic bills and normal household expenses.

A recent survey by GOBankingRates found that nearly 70% of Americans have less than $1,000 saved and more than a third have nothing saved at all. Yikes. Age and levels of responsibility can influence savings rates. Anyone with a growing family – particularly a homeowner or a household with children – knows that surprise expenses aren’t all that surprising because the surprises just keep coming. This can put pressure on the best laid plans to try to increase savings.

How to Save More
If you have a 401(k), your contribution to it comes from a payroll deduction, meaning your 401(k) contribution is paid first – before you get the rest of your paycheck. If you have a 401(k) or a similar type of retirement account, there are lessons that can be borrowed from that account structure which can be used to help build your personal savings.

Paying yourself first is a great way to begin building your emergency fund, which can leave you better prepared for the proverbial rainy day. If you look at your monthly expenses, and if your household is like most households, you’re almost certain to find some unnecessary spending.

Start paying yourself first – by putting some money aside in a separate account or a safe place. This can help prevent some of those unnecessary expenditures (because there won’t be money available) while also leaving you better prepared.

The next time the car needs repairs, the A/C stops working, the fridge stops freezing, or the lawnmower breaks down, you’ll be ready – or at least you’ll be in a better position to bail yourself out!

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