Sinking Funds 101

June 29, 2022

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Bree Hudson

Bree Hudson

Independent Consultant

5830 Granite Parkway
Suite 100
Plano, Texas 75024

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June 6, 2022

Retiring in a Bear Market

Retiring in a Bear Market

Is a slowing market challenging your peace of mind about retirement?

It’s no wonder why—losing wealth on the cusp of retirement can suddenly lower the quality of your post-career lifestyle.

And worst of all, it can seem unavoidable. If you turn 67 during a bear market, what are your options for avoiding a retirement disaster?

The first, most obvious solution is to keep working. Take the loss on the chin, push through, let the recovery buoy your savings, and retire at the top.

The drawbacks? It could delay your retirement by 3 to 5 years.

Even worse, you’ll then likely face the temptation to retire at the TOP of the next bull market. And if you don’t plan accordingly, your retirement savings and income could get hammered during the almost inevitable bear market that would follow.

The second, far more powerful strategy? Taper your risk as you approach retirement.

Why? Because it can make you far less vulnerable to market fluctuations. Whether you retire at the top or bottom of the market becomes less important for your retirement outcome.

That’s why it’s absolutely essential to meet with a licensed and qualified financial professional ASAP. They can review your goals and situation to determine what level of risk works best for you. They can also help you taper your risk exposure as you get closer to retirement.

And if you’re ready to retire but skittish about the market, they can help you weigh the pros and cons of taking the plunge or waiting it out.

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May 23, 2022

What's a Recession?

What's a Recession?

Most of us would probably be apprehensive about another recession.

The Great Recession caused financial devastation for millions of people across the globe. But what exactly is a recession? How do we know if we’re in one? How could it affect you and your family? Here’s a quick rundown.

So what exactly is a recession? The quick answer is that a recession is a negative GDP growth rate for two back-to-back quarters or longer (1). But reality can be a bit more complicated than that. There’s actually an organization that decides when the country is in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is composed of commissioners who dig through monthly data and officially declare when a downturn begins.

There’s also a difference between a recession and a depression. A recession typically lasts between 6 to 16 months (the Great Recession was an exception and pushed 18 months). The Great Depression, by contrast, lasted a solid decade and witnessed unemployment rates above 25% (2). Fortunately, depressions are rare: there’s only been one since 1854, while there have been 33 recessions during the same time (3).

What happens during a recession <br> The NBER monitors five recession indicators. The first and most important is inflation-adjusted GDP. A consistent quarterly decline in GDP growth is a good sign that a recession has started or is on the horizon. Then this gets supplemented by other numbers. A falling monthly GDP, declining real income, increasing unemployment, weak manufacturing and retail sales all point to a recession.

How could a recession affect you? The bottom line is that a weak economy affects everyone. Business slows down and layoffs can occur. People who keep their jobs may get spooked by seeing coworkers and friends lose their jobs, and then they may start cutting back on spending. This can start a vicious cycle which can lead to lower profits for businesses and possibly more layoffs. The government may increase spending and lower interest rates in order to help stop the cycle and stabilize the economy.

In the short term, that means it might be harder to find a job if you’re unemployed or just out of school and that your cost of living skyrockets. But it can also affect your major investments; the value of your home or your retirement savings could all face major setbacks.

Recessions can be distressing. They’re hard to see coming and they can potentially impact your financial future. That’s why it’s so important to start preparing for any downturns today. Schedule a call with a financial professional to discuss strategies to help protect your future!

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¹ “What Is a Recession?” Kimberly Amadeo, The Balance, Apr 6, 2022, https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-recession-3306019

² “What Is a Recession?” Amadeo, The Balance, 2022

³ “Recession vs. Depression: How To Tell the Difference” Kimberly Amadeo, The Balance, May 4, 2022, https://www.thebalance.com/recession-vs-depression-definition-causes-and-stats-3306048

April 6, 2022

Understanding the Inverted Yield Curve

Understanding the Inverted Yield Curve

Inverted Yield Curve. It’s a phrase you may have heard before. More financial gibberish, right?

Wrong.

Paying attention to the yield curve is critical because it may indicate there’s a recession on the horizon. And as of March 29, 2022, it inverted for the first time since 2019.¹

What Is the Yield Curve?

The yield curve is simply a graph that shows the interest rates of different types of bonds. With a normal yield curve, bonds with lower lifespans (i.e., maturity) have lower interest rates. That’s because they’ll face less inflation and need less growth to keep up. By that logic, bonds with longer maturities have higher interest rates.

Put simply, if the yield curve is normal, a bond with a two year maturity will have a lower interest rate than a bond with a thirty year maturity.

So what happens when that gets inverted? Bonds with short maturities have higher interest rates, and bonds with long maturities have lower interest rates.

Why is that a big deal? Because it’s consistently correlated with economic recession. There have been 28 inverted yield curves since 1900, and 22 have correlated with recessions.²

And the average lead time from when the yield curve inverted to when the recession began was around 22 months.

This is not to say that you should start buying land in West Virginia or emergency rations. These are unprecedented times, and there may be other factors at play. But it’s at least a check engine light for your finances. Are you prepared for job instability? Is your emergency fund fully stocked? The time to start preparing for these possibilities is now. Meet with your financial pro today to make sure you’re prepared for whatever the future holds.

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¹⁺² “Explainer: U.S. yield curve inversion - What is it telling us?” David Randall, Davide Barbuscia and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Reuters, Mar 29, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-yield-curve-inversion-what-is-it-telling-us-2022-03-29/

September 24, 2018

Inflation Over Time and What it Means for Retirement

Inflation Over Time and What it Means for Retirement

You may have thought that inflation is always bad, but did you know that sometimes it can be good?

Inflation is simply the difference in prices from one year to the next over time. It’s calculated as a percentage and it goes through cycles:

  • Two percent inflation is actually seen as economic growth and is considered “healthy” inflation.
  • As inflation expands beyond three percent it creates a peak and financial bubbles can form.
  • If the percentage falls below two percent, inflation may be seen as negative and recessions can develop.
  • Finally, there is a trough preceding another cycle expansion.

(If you want to geek out about inflation rates, check out a history from 1929 to 2020 at https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093.)

Good or bad, inflation should be a concern for everyone in the United States. The economy affects us all, but it can be particularly troubling for seniors living in retirement, or who are about to enter retirement. This is because retirement is usually based on a fixed income budget. Inflation can decrease the purchasing power of retirees, especially for goods and services that increase with inflation.

Here are some tips to protect your retirement income from the effects of inflation over time:

Maximize Your Social Security
Social security benefits have a cost of living/inflation increase built into the disbursement. So, as inflation goes up and the cost of living rises, so too does your social security.

This can be beneficial while you’re on a fixed retirement income. Because this is the only retirement investment with this feature, try to maximize your social security earnings by working until age 70 if you can.

Select Investments that May Grow When Inflation Rises
While living expenses such as gas, groceries, and utilities might rise with inflation, some investments may offer better returns as inflation rises. This is another reason a diverse retirement portfolio might be beneficial.

Minimize Expenses to Combat Rising Inflation
While none of us can affect the inflation rate itself, we can all work to minimize our expenses during our retirement years. Maximizing your income and minimizing your expenses is the name of the game when you’re living on a fixed budget.

Minimizing housing costs is a strategy to deal with inflation and rising prices. Downsize your home if possible. Perhaps investing in a renewable energy source may help save money on energy expenses. A simple kitchen garden can save you money on groceries – a budget item that can take a big hit from inflation.

The Ebb and Flow of Inflation Over Time
Over time, inflation waxes and wanes. A little planning, diversified investments, and consistent frugality may help you sail through inflation increases during your retirement years.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to promote any certain products, plans, or strategies for saving and/or investing that may be available to you. Market performance is based on many factors and cannot be predicted. Before investing, talk with a financial professional to discuss your options.

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September 17, 2018

Generation X: What They Do Right And What They Can Do Better

Generation X: What They Do Right And What They Can Do Better

There’s a lot of discussion about how Americans aren’t prepared for retirement, and Generation X is no exception.

In fact, Generation X may have even less retirement savings than the Baby Boomer and Millennial generations.

A study by TD Ameritrade[i] highlights the problem many GenXers deal with:

  • 37 percent say they would like to retire someday, but won’t be able to afford it
  • 43 percent are behind in their savings
  • 49 percent are worried about running out of money during retirement
  • Almost two out of 10 aren’t saving or investing

The shortfall of savings isn’t without reason. In their financial lives so far, Generation X has taken some hard knocks. They have faced two recessions, disappearing pensions, the rise of the 401(k), and dwindling social security benefits.

What Generation X Does Right with Their Savings
With all those financial forces against them and a decidedly laid-back approach to savings, is there anything Generation X has going for them? Turns out, there is – 401(k) investments and a strong recovery from the 2008 recession.

The 401(k) Generation: Generation X was the first generation to enroll in 401(k) savings plans en masse. 80 percent are invested in a 401(k) plan or something similar.[ii] The fact that almost all of Generation X has embraced the 401(k) retirement savings plan is a revelation.

Rebound: If every generation receives a financial gift, for Generation X, it is their solid rebound after the Great Recession. According to a study by the Pew Research Center,[iii] the net worth of a GenX household has surpassed what it was in 2007. Meanwhile, the net worth of households headed by Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation remains below their 2007 levels.

What Generation X Can do Better When it Comes to Savings
There’s always room for improvement when it comes to financial planning. For Generation X, those improvements are best focused on saving and getting out of debt. Here are a few pointers: Ramp up your savings: Commit to socking away at least $50 a month to start and increase that amount over time. Make sure savings is factored in to your monthly budget. Pay off credit card debt: Credit card debt is expensive debt. Commit to getting serious and paying it off. If you need help, consider consolidating, balance transfers, or getting a personal loan at a lower rate.

A Mixed Financial Picture
Like other generations, the savings snapshot of Generation X is a mixed picture. They have some great financial tools in place with 401(k) plans and a growing net worth.

If you’re a GenXer and if you’re serious about financial health, it’s not too late to commit to a savings plan, get out of credit card debt, and seek to improve your long-term outlook!

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