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Luis Puente

Luis Puente

Financial Education

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February 12, 2020

What's a Recession?

What's a Recession?

Most of us would probably be apprehensive about another recession.

The Great Recession caused financial devastation for millions of people across the globe. But what exactly is a recession? How do we know if we’re in one? How could it affect you and your family? Here’s a quick rundown.

So what exactly is a recession?
The quick answer is that a recession is a negative GDP growth rate for two back-to-back quarters or longer (1). But reality can be a bit more complicated than that. There’s actually an organization that decides when the country is in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is composed of commissioners who dig through monthly data and officially declare when a downturn begins.

There’s also a difference between a recession and a depression. A recession typically lasts between 6 to 16 months (the Great Recession was an exception and pushed 18 months). The Great Depression, by contrast, lasted a solid decade and witnessed unemployment rates above 25% (2). Fortunately, depressions are rare: there’s only been one since 1854, while there have been 33 recessions during the same time (3).

What happens during a recession
The NBER monitors five recession indicators. The first and most important is inflation-adjusted GDP. A consistent quarterly decline in GDP growth is a good sign that a recession has started or is on the horizon. Then this gets supplemented by other numbers. A falling monthly GDP, declining real income, increasing unemployment, weak manufacturing and retail sales all point to a recession.

How could a recession affect you?
The bottom line is that a weak economy affects everyone. Business slows down and layoffs can occur. People who keep their jobs may get spooked by seeing coworkers and friends lose their jobs, and then they may start cutting back on spending. This can start a vicious cycle which can lead to lower profits for businesses and possibly more layoffs. The government may increase spending and lower interest rates in order to help stop the cycle and stabilize the economy.

In the short term, that means it might be harder to find a job if you’re unemployed or just out of school and that your cost of living skyrockets. But it can also affect your major investments; the value of your home or your retirement savings could all face major setbacks.

Recessions can be distressing. They’re hard to see coming and they can potentially impact your financial future. That’s why it’s so important to start preparing for any downturns today. Schedule a call with a financial professional to discuss strategies to help protect your future!

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  1. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-recession-3306019
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-recession-3306019
  3. https://www.thebalance.com/recession-vs-depression-definition-causes-and-stats-3306048

September 24, 2018

Inflation Over Time and What it Means for Retirement

Inflation Over Time and What it Means for Retirement

You may have thought that inflation is always bad, but did you know that sometimes it can be good?

Inflation is simply the difference in prices from one year to the next over time. It’s calculated as a percentage and it goes through cycles:

  • Two percent inflation is actually seen as economic growth and is considered “healthy” inflation.
  • As inflation expands beyond three percent it creates a peak and financial bubbles can form.
  • If the percentage falls below two percent, inflation may be seen as negative and recessions can develop.
  • Finally, there is a trough preceding another cycle expansion.

(If you want to geek out about inflation rates, check out a history from 1929 to 2020 at https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093.)

Good or bad, inflation should be a concern for everyone in the United States. The economy affects us all, but it can be particularly troubling for seniors living in retirement, or who are about to enter retirement. This is because retirement is usually based on a fixed income budget. Inflation can decrease the purchasing power of retirees, especially for goods and services that increase with inflation.

Here are some tips to protect your retirement income from the effects of inflation over time:

Maximize Your Social Security
Social security benefits have a cost of living/inflation increase built into the disbursement. So, as inflation goes up and the cost of living rises, so too does your social security.

This can be beneficial while you’re on a fixed retirement income. Because this is the only retirement investment with this feature, try to maximize your social security earnings by working until age 70 if you can.

Select Investments that May Grow When Inflation Rises
While living expenses such as gas, groceries, and utilities might rise with inflation, some investments may offer better returns as inflation rises. This is another reason a diverse retirement portfolio might be beneficial.

Minimize Expenses to Combat Rising Inflation
While none of us can affect the inflation rate itself, we can all work to minimize our expenses during our retirement years. Maximizing your income and minimizing your expenses is the name of the game when you’re living on a fixed budget.

Minimizing housing costs is a strategy to deal with inflation and rising prices. Downsize your home if possible. Perhaps investing in a renewable energy source may help save money on energy expenses. A simple kitchen garden can save you money on groceries – a budget item that can take a big hit from inflation.

The Ebb and Flow of Inflation Over Time
Over time, inflation waxes and wanes. A little planning, diversified investments, and consistent frugality may help you sail through inflation increases during your retirement years.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to promote any certain products, plans, or strategies for saving and/or investing that may be available to you. Market performance is based on many factors and cannot be predicted. Before investing, talk with a financial professional to discuss your options.

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September 17, 2018

Generation X: What They Do Right And What They Can Do Better

Generation X: What They Do Right And What They Can Do Better

There’s a lot of discussion about how Americans aren’t prepared for retirement, and Generation X is no exception.

In fact, Generation X may have even less retirement savings than the Baby Boomer and Millennial generations.

A study by TD Ameritrade[i] highlights the problem many GenXers deal with:

  • 37 percent say they would like to retire someday, but won’t be able to afford it
  • 43 percent are behind in their savings
  • 49 percent are worried about running out of money during retirement
  • Almost two out of 10 aren’t saving or investing

The shortfall of savings isn’t without reason. In their financial lives so far, Generation X has taken some hard knocks. They have faced two recessions, disappearing pensions, the rise of the 401(k), and dwindling social security benefits.

What Generation X Does Right with Their Savings
With all those financial forces against them and a decidedly laid-back approach to savings, is there anything Generation X has going for them? Turns out, there is – 401(k) investments and a strong recovery from the 2008 recession.

The 401(k) Generation: Generation X was the first generation to enroll in 401(k) savings plans en masse. 80 percent are invested in a 401(k) plan or something similar.[ii] The fact that almost all of Generation X has embraced the 401(k) retirement savings plan is a revelation.

Rebound: If every generation receives a financial gift, for Generation X, it is their solid rebound after the Great Recession. According to a study by the Pew Research Center,[iii] the net worth of a GenX household has surpassed what it was in 2007. Meanwhile, the net worth of households headed by Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation remains below their 2007 levels.

What Generation X Can do Better When it Comes to Savings
There’s always room for improvement when it comes to financial planning. For Generation X, those improvements are best focused on saving and getting out of debt. Here are a few pointers: Ramp up your savings: Commit to socking away at least $50 a month to start and increase that amount over time. Make sure savings is factored in to your monthly budget. Pay off credit card debt: Credit card debt is expensive debt. Commit to getting serious and paying it off. If you need help, consider consolidating, balance transfers, or getting a personal loan at a lower rate.

A Mixed Financial Picture
Like other generations, the savings snapshot of Generation X is a mixed picture. They have some great financial tools in place with 401(k) plans and a growing net worth.

If you’re a GenXer and if you’re serious about financial health, it’s not too late to commit to a savings plan, get out of credit card debt, and seek to improve your long-term outlook!

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[i] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/01/10/retirement-crisis-37-gen-x-say-they-wont-able-afford-retire/1016739001/
[ii] https://www.aarp.org/money/credit-loans-debt/info-2015/gen-x-interesting-finance-facts.html
[iii] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/07/23/gen-x-rebounds-as-the-only-generation-to-recover-the-wealth-lost-after-the-housing-crash/

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